In a time of escalating geopolitical tensions, strategic thinkers and military analysts must grapple with scenarios that are difficult to fathom. One is the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons in active conflicts. In this context, consider the hypothetical situation of Russia deploying a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Crimea. While purely speculative, understanding the potential political, environmental, and military consequences and the circumstances under which such a weapon might be deployed is crucial.
Under What Conditions Could a Tactical Nuclear Weapon Be Deployed?
Extreme military necessity might prompt such action if Russia perceived an existential threat that couldn’t be addressed with conventional means. A failure of deterrence, wherein NATO forces engage Russian forces directly and on a large scale, might also spur a resort to tactical nuclear weapons to reestablish deterrence.
Political desperation during severe domestic unrest or political crisis could drive leaders to extreme measures. Finally, changes in military doctrine might lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons. While these are speculative scenarios, they highlight the grave nature of deploying any nuclear weapons and underline why it is seen as a last resort.
Russia might use nuclear weapons against Ukraine’s military installations or energy infrastructure to undermine Ukraine’s resolve and impair its military capability. Tactical nuclear weapons, known for their smaller payloads and precise targeting, are well-suited for use on the battlefield.
Russia’s arsenal comprises approximately two thousand tactical nuclear weapons, deployable by aircraft, missile systems, or naval vessels. The Iskander-M missile system (pictured), a short-range platform, is the most probable choice for deployment.
As Andrés Gannon from the US Counsel on Foreign Relations speculates, Russia might choose to target Ukrainian forces stationed near the Troitske-Svatove-Kreminna line in Luhansk. Such a strike would aim to prevent a potential retreat of Russian forces, similar to what happened in Kherson.
Russian military planners could significantly debilitate these Ukrainian forces by launching a nuclear attack. The resulting radioactive fallout could create a desolate no-man’s-land. This dire prospect could force Ukraine to reconsider any plans for advancement.
Political Consequences
The detonation of any nuclear weapon would significantly violate international norms and treaties, such as the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), to which Russia is a signatory. Such an action would also breach International Humanitarian Law (IHL), which is intended to protect civilian populations and limit the destructiveness of warfare.
The international community would respond swiftly and severely, with diplomatic isolation, universal condemnation, and potentially unprecedented sanctions on Russia. Nations could take these measures collectively or independently, bypassing the United Nations Security Council, where Russia holds veto power.
Environmental Consequences
The environmental fallout from a nuclear detonation would be catastrophic. Immediate vicinity destruction, protracted radioactive contamination, and the potential spread to neighbouring regions and beyond would pose significant threats.
Agriculturally, Ukraine, as a significant global wheat exporter, could experience severe impacts. Contamination of Ukrainian wheat might lead to global food shortages, escalating food prices, and rising food insecurity, particularly in regions heavily reliant on these exports.
Military Consequences
The international military community’s response would be complex: direct military confrontation with Russia might risk escalating the conflict. Still, NATO and other international powers could ramp up their conventional military presence in the region, bolster defensive postures, and provide direct military aid to Ukraine.
This scenario could spur a global reassessment of security policies, potentially instigating increased military spending and a new arms race. Smaller nations might seek the protective umbrella of nuclear-armed states or even consider developing their own nuclear weapons, further destabilising international security.
Conclusion
This ‘what-if’ scenario underscores the catastrophic consequences of a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine or Crimea. This event could permanently alter global political, environmental, and military landscapes. It emphasises the need for sustained diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation of the current conflict.
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